This morning I have bought VEVE for your portfolio after it closed at around 3.8% below its previous high of 9730 on 12 November.
Last week I held off buying, and VEVE has dipped lower. The opportunity was not good last week but, after further analysis this weekend with updated data, I believe now is a good time to buy.
Here is why:
1. This is a real dip, not a wobble
Most of the small declines we’ve seen this year were tiny, half-hearted moves that didn’t create any value at all. Prices hardly moved below their trend and there was no sign of the market losing energy.
The latest move is different:
- The price has fallen far enough to be meaningful
- We are seeing the first signs of sellers running out of steam
- The price is now sitting in a zone where genuine recoveries often begin
This is the first “proper” dip we’ve seen in months.
2. The selling pressure is calming down, not accelerating
We look closely at how strong the selling is beneath the surface - not just the size of the drop. A worrying decline shows panic selling: big red days, prices closing at their lows, and no buyers stepping in.
That is not what we have now.
In fact:
- Friday’s trading session ended with a green day, with the price finished near the top of its range
- There was evidence showing buyers stepped in confidently
- Volatility remains normal, not stressed
This tells us the market is not in fear - it is simply adjusting.
3. The price is in the “recovery zone”
Healthy pullbacks tend to happen when a fund drops down close to its shorter-term trend. This is often where buyers return and prices drift back up.
VEVE is now sitting just under those trend levels - right in the zone where we typically see recoveries forming. Not necessarily dramatic rebounds, but the steady, predictable rises that our strategy is designed to capture.
4. This is nothing like the drop earlier in the year
The decline earlier this year - the one that took six months to recover - looked and behaved very differently:
- Prices fell sharply
- The daily ranges widened dramatically
- The closing prices were weak
- Selling pressure increased day after day
That was the classic pattern of a “falling knife.”
We are seeing none of that now.
This decline has been gentle, orderly, and controlled.
5. What this means going forward
For this strategy, we don’t need a dramatic rebound.
We only need VEVE to drift back towards where it was - not all the way back, just most of the way.
Given what we’re seeing:
- The selling appears to be easing
- Buyers are active again
- The market is not stressed
- The price is in a normal, healthy pullback
The odds of a steady recovery over the next few weeks are significantly higher than the odds of a prolonged slump.