The S&P 500 appears to be up strongly since the US election.
Is this because it loves Trump’s idea of economics as some would have you believe?
Or because the market hates uncertainty?
I think the latter.
The S&P 500 has been on the up since August, when the Democrats swapped Biden for Harris.
The market is almost always forward looking – anticipating what comes next – and rarely reactive.
August is when the market thought “we have more certainty”.
It anticipated that, with more certainty, business would be able to plan and adjust accordingly.
It didn’t really matter to the market who won, what mattered was more certainty.
That certainty will now wane if Trump deviates from what he said he will do.
That creates uncertainty, and the market dislikes uncertainty more than anything else.
We have had a very good four months for your general portfolio - we are at all time highs for most clients.
But we are having to be patient while we wait for the next PIP-VEVE opportunity.
I imagined we would have had one by now.
Now I am not sure how long we will need to wait. Let's see.
In the meantime the cash set aside for PIP-VEVE is earning interest.
If we don't speak before, I wish you and your families a very happy and peaceful Christmas and New Year.