05/01/24
I last updated you on 18 December when VEVE reached a new recent high of 7155. Since then VEVE has continued to climb and the new recent (and all-time) high of 7220 was reached on 28 December. This is the point from which we are now measuring.
Yesterday the close price was 1% below this. For most of you we will start buying at 7003 (3% below 7220), a price last seen on 12 December. 5% below 7220 is 6859 which was last seen on 10 November, which is more than 8 weeks ago so our 5% threshold now reduces to a 4.75% threshold which equates to a price of 6877.
An upturn has also been seen in your other holdings too – everything has done well in the last little while. This can broadly be attributed to the expectation that interest rates in the US are expected to drop significantly in 2024.
That is a logical expectation as inflation falls monetary policy tightens if interest rates don’t fall too, and because inflation is falling you don’t really need ever tighter monetary policy. Quite how enthusiastically the expected rate drops have been priced in remains to be seen. My gut tells me that rapid rises often take a pause and step back a little as easy profits are taken.
I would not be surprised if that becomes the case for VEVE too in the next week or two. Time will tell. In the meantime the cash you have set aside for PIP continues to earn around 3% pa.
19/01/24
Suzan Issa Suzan is our well being coach and she started working with clients last year. To date 17 different clients and their families have benefitted from talking with her about all manner of things – loss, purpose, trauma, children etc. She is available to you and your family without charge, please let me know if you would like an introduction to her.
As well as working with TCFP clients, Suzan’s Wildheart Foundation does great work with children and their education needs. Click here to read more: https://wildheartfoundation.co.uk/.
And she has written a book too: https://amzn.eu/d/7Td5S10 which gives great insight into how to parent those who cannot (apparently) be parented. If you or a close relative would like a copy of the book we will happily buy one for you, just let me know.
VEVE In the fortnight since I last posted VEVE has gone back up towards an all time peak. The upward momentum since the end of October has persisted and my thought that we might be buying VEVE in the next week or two has proved not to pass. Not to worry the name of the game is patience and your general portfolio is benefitting from the market optimism.
Cash Your cash balance at RJIS hold is earning the equivalent of about 3% pa, which is paid twice yearly with the next payment due in April. Had that money remained in bonds it would be down 0.5% over the last 6 months and 2.4% over the last month.
New Joiners Two new clients are in the process of joining the Premium Service which means £3,000,000 will now be using PIP.
RJIS More detailed quarterly reports for your RJIS account became available via your RJIS login last week. Please get in touch if we need to discuss them.
08/02/24
VEVE Since I last posted VEVE has climbed steadily - by about 4% to be precise. New highs are being set with such regularity that updating you every time a new one is reached would not be that informative.
Let's put our flag in the sand today though. VEVE closed at 7487 last night. 3% below that high is 7262 (last seen on 23/1/24) and 5% below is 7113 (last seen on 5/1/24). Things are generally rosy in the investment garden as things start.
The world (or the people who have money to invest at least) appears to be quite optimistic at the present time. I suspect that sentiment is sensitive to US interest rate expectations.
If the likelihood of a rate drop diminishes then I would expect VEVE to take a step back. Given it has risen quickly I would hold the step back would be large enough to allow us to step into the market.
As ever time will tell. Although disappointing for PIP, VEVE rising is great news for your "normal" portfolio which will have being doing quite well for a fair few months now. The money you have set aside for PIP continues to earn interest at the rate of around 3% pa which better than the bonds you would have otherwise owned have done.
Tax Year End In the background the team and I are looking at your accounts and situation to make sure that everything that could be done has been done with the tax year end looming. Several of you are already booked in for virtual meetings to discuss any actions that are needed. If we have not been in touch we will be in the next few weeks.
27/03/24
This is an update merely for the sake of an update if I’m honest.
VEVE continues to climb and climb. The more it climbs the harder I expect the landing to be, we shall see. I am on alert for not moving too quickly now. If VEVE drifts down by 3-5% over a week or so I expect to implement PIP.
If, however, it lurches down by 3-5% in a hurry then that might well portend something more substantial to come and I may well watch and wait further developments. The current VEVE high is 7859 (set on 22 March, but it’s on course to be beaten today 27 March), that’s a 20% gain on VEVE since the end of October – very good for your overall portfolio, not so good for PIP.
Over the same period the bonds you would probably otherwise have been holding are up about 1% compared to the c1.25% you have earned while your money has been waiting in cash.
That tells me PIP has been worth the effort so far overall. But it ain’t half frustrating having to wait and wait and wait…..